Conflict Case Analysis

Assignment Brief

A conflict case analysis (2,500-3,000 words) and an annotated bibliography (1,000-1,500 words).
Key points to consider for the conflict case analysis:

1. Specify the period and the nature of the events you are examining, and whether the conflict has ended or is ongoing. Which country are you focusing on? Which period?
2. Specify the nature of the conflict based on your research - is it an insurgency, a civil war, a genocide?
3. Who are the key parties/actors in the conflict?
4. What are the causes, to what extent are they structural? To what extent are particular domestic or international actors responsible for launching or perpetuating the conflict?
5. Examine the trajectory of the conflict, has it changed over time? What tactics are used by the parties, what are the impacts?
6. Identify and evaluate key interventions in the conflict, including peace-making, peacekeeping or peacebuilding initiatives.
7. Back up with evidence from a range of sources
8. Provide a clear argument in the introduction indicating your view on the causes and responses; provide a clear conclusion that ties together your main findings and reflect on their significance. 

Make sure you have consulted a range of academic sources (minimum of 5 academic journal articles/books)

Also consult at least one conflict data program eg ACLED or Uppsala conflict data program. 

• You can also draw on ‘grey literature’/policy research from human rights organisations,
• think tanks eg. Human Rights Watch, International Crisis Group and news reports.
• Reflect on your sources critically – what do we know? how substantial is the material,
• what kind of research is it based on?
• Work out your perspective on the causes of the conflict/responses (for the
• intro/argument and conclusion)
• You can use bullet points, tables, and images to present your findings.
• You must reference your sources in the conflict analysis (as in any essay) and you
• must include a detailed reference list listing all your sources. You can either Harvard
• or footnote references.

The annotated bibliography (1,000-1,500 words)

This task requires you to reflect critically on four texts. The annotated bibliography will help to demonstrate your grasp of key arguments discussed in the course. This task is both part of the research process (helping to prepare you for the conflict analysis) and part of your final assignment. This bibliography may be written as you progress through the course and discussed in seminars, but will be submitted at the same time as the final essay. It may either be submitted in the same file, following on the reference list for your conflict analysis, or in a separate document alongside it.

Sample Answer

Conflict Case Analysis: The Syrian Civil War

Introduction

The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, is a complex and devastating conflict that remains unresolved. It started as part of the wider Arab Spring movement, with peaceful protests against President Bashar al-Assad`s regime. These protests quickly escalated into a violent civil war involving many different actors, both domestic and international. This essay argues that the war’s causes are deeply structural, rooted in authoritarian governance, economic hardship, and sectarian tensions. However, international interventions have played a major role in prolonging and complicating the conflict. This analysis explores the war’s origins, key actors, evolution, and major interventions, and critically reflects on the sources of information available.

Nature of the Conflict

The Syrian conflict is a civil war with insurgent elements and international involvement. It began with peaceful protests in March 2011 but evolved into a brutal war involving government forces, rebel groups, jihadist organisations, Kurdish forces, and foreign actors. The war has led to a major humanitarian crisis, with over 500,000 deaths and millions of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) (ACLED, 2024).

Key Parties Involved

• Syrian Government: Led by President Bashar al-Assad and supported by Russia and Iran.

• Rebel Groups: Initially included the Free Syrian Army (FSA), later fragmented into different factions.

• Islamist Groups: Including Islamic State (ISIS) and Jabhat al-Nusra (linked to al-Qaeda).

• Kurdish Forces: Primarily the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), seeking autonomy in northern Syria.

• Foreign Actors: Russia, Iran, the United States, Turkey, and various Gulf States.

Causes of the Conflict

Structural Causes

• Authoritarian Rule: Assad`s regime was known for repression, lack of political freedom, and human rights abuses (Heydemann, 2013).

• Economic Inequality: High unemployment, poverty, and drought in rural areas led to dissatisfaction, especially among the youth (Phillips, 2015).

• Sectarian Divides: The Assad regime, dominated by the Alawite minority, ruled over a Sunni-majority population. This created long-standing tensions (Abboud, 2016).

Role of Actors

While structural issues created the conditions for conflict, the government’s violent response to peaceful protests triggered the war. Additionally, foreign powers have significantly influenced the conflict’s trajectory. Iran and Russia backed Assad militarily and economically. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Turkey supported various rebel groups, and Gulf States provided funding. These interventions have prolonged the war and fragmented the opposition (Lister, 2016).

Trajectory of the Conflict

Initially, the conflict was between Assad’s forces and rebel groups. However, over time, it evolved into a multi-sided war. The rise of ISIS in 2014 led to further chaos, prompting U.S.-led coalition airstrikes. Russia’s direct military intervention in 2015 helped Assad regain control over key areas. By 2021, the Syrian government controlled most of the territory, but violence continues in some regions, especially in the north-west and north-east.

Tactics Used

• Government: Heavy use of airstrikes, chemical weapons (alleged), and sieges (HRW, 2020).

• Rebels and Islamist Groups: Guerrilla warfare, car bombings, and human rights abuses.

• Foreign Powers: Airstrikes, drone attacks, and logistical support to proxies.

• Impact: Massive civilian casualties, destruction of infrastructure, and the worst refugee crisis since World War II.

Key Interventions

Peace Efforts

• UN-Led Geneva Talks (2012 onwards): Aimed at political transition but largely failed due to lack of consensus.

• Astana Process (2017): Led by Russia, Iran, and Turkey; focused on de-escalation zones but criticised for favouring Assad.

Peacekeeping and Humanitarian Efforts

• No major UN peacekeeping force due to Security Council vetoes.

• Humanitarian Aid: Provided by UN agencies and NGOs, often blocked or limited in besieged areas.

• Refugee Support: Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan host millions; international aid remains insufficient.

Effectiveness of Interventions

Most peace initiatives have failed, largely due to the lack of cooperation between foreign powers and the Syrian government’s refusal to negotiate its removal. Russia and Iran’s backing of Assad has strengthened his position, while Western support for rebels has been inconsistent (International Crisis Group, 2021).

Continued...